Updated: Sep 30, 2021
The financial trading community had thrown its proverbial hands in the air at the idea of being able to reliably predict movements in stock prices. Both manual approaches combining Financial Algorithms and Charts with Human Intelligence; and automated approaches using AI / ML (Artificial Intelligence and/or Machine Learning) or Financial Algorithms have failed to consistently deliver above average market results.
However, Semantic Brain has demonstrated a revolutionary architecture that delivers accurate predictions; and is continuing to enhance its ability to help Investors better manage their trades and portfolios. We are able to achieve these breakthrough results by uniquely integrating Financial Algos, AI / ML, Charts and Human Intelligence. We are harnessing the power of Deep Learning, Parallel Processing and GPUs to substantially improve accuracy while reducing costs and increasing performance.
This weekly journal is authored with the intention of sharing our journey, our accomplishments and industry trends / innovations.
Semantic Brain: September 6 to 12, 2021
Future Top Movers - 100% Precision
We launched the Future Top Movers functionality (which identifies stocks that are expected to move more than 5% within five(5) trading days / one(1) week) into production on August 16, 2021. During the first four weeks in production our Future Top Movers functionality has delivered 100% Precision.
100% of RUSSELL 2000 (Small Cap) Future Top Movers price changed more than 5%
All RUSSELL 2000 (Small Cap) Future Top Movers predicted on September 3rd had prices change more than 10%
100% of RUSSELL 1000 (Large Cap) Future Top Movers price changed more than 5%
2 out of 4 RUSSELL 1000 (Large Cap) Future Top Movers predicted on September 3rd had prices change more than 10%
Outlook for September 13 to 19, 2021
Substantial movement on assets identified on September 13th.
Semantic Brain: Future Efforts
Semantic Brain is embarking on a long-term journey to "Augment Financial Intelligence", and aspires to eventually augment multiple forms intelligence. We believe that the following near-term agile R&D pipeline will help our customers achieve superior results.
Likely Movers: This is a new feature that helps users analyze their current holdings / portfolios and watchlist. We expect a lower precision, however, this is expected to deliver more information and insight.
Directional & Momentum Predictions: Deliver accurate predictions on direction of stock price change using momentum and directional indicators. Semantic Brain is working on improving the accuracy of these models, and we are planning to release this into production in September.
Broader Scans: Scan more markets and equities to identify better and more investment opportunities
There are 53K global equities, our coverage is currently limited to 3000 US equities
Real-time Alerts: Alerts users on historical anomalies and deviations in real-time.
Intraday Predictions: Semantic Brain's predictions presently use Daily Data. We plan to collect data every 30 mins (and subsequently 5 mins) to make more frequent and accurate predictions.
Expand Financial Instrument Coverage: Predict price changes for Crypto, Commodities and Currency Pairs.
AI & Cyborg Journey
Semantic Brain relies on a number of technologies (e.g. Predictive Analytics, Explainable AI, Chatbots) and enabling platforms (e.g. Large Multi-screen Platforms, AR/VR in future). We tie these technologies and platforms together to create Human and AI feedback loops which result in Superior Intelligence that is greater than Human or AI.
This section is dedicated to highlighting some of the above industry trends and innovations. We plan to eventually use Semantic Brain's Frameworks and Solutions developed for investing / finance in many other areas (e.g. marketing, medicine). Sharing our thoughts on industry trends and innovations is also our way of supporting and encouraging the community.
AI Evolution & Hype Cycle
Each year Gartner publishes more than a hundred (100) Hype Cycles. Amongst them, the Emerging Technology Hype Cycle is one of the most popular artifacts. Up until 2018 many of the AI technologies were identified in Emerging Technology Hype Cycle. However, as of maybe 2019 the AI Hype Cycle article has become increasingly popular amongst the masses.
However, many reviewing the latest Gartner report (2021 AI Hype Cycle) may misinterpret (or have misinterpreted) the content and have falsely stated that practical applications of AI will not materialize for many years to come. There are many day-to-day applications that utilize AI - many have been available for a few years and some for one or two decades. In-addition, many of the AI technologies highlighted on Gartner AI Hype Cycle have rapidly matured and delivered significant value.
Everyday Applications of AI / ML: Many practical applications of AI are currently in use. These include Navigation, Ride Sharing, Spam Filters, Fraud Detection, Personal Assistants, etc. - https://emerj.com/ai-sector-overviews/everyday-examples-of-ai/
Gartner 2019 AI Hype Cycle: GPU Accelerator, Speech Recognition, Robotic Process Automation (RPA) identified as nearing maturity. Speech Recognition and RPA removed from list in 2020 - https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/top-trends-on-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-artificial-intelligence-2019/
Gartner 2020 AI Hype Cycle: GPU Accelerators are still on the list and removed in 2021. Cognitive Computing is obsolete before plateau - https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/2-megatrends-dominate-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for-artificial-intelligence-2020/
Gartner 2021 AI Hype Cycle: Chatbots expected to mature within 2 years - https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-09-07-gartner-identifies-four-trends-driving-near-term-artificial-intelligence-innovation
Gartner 2018 Emerging Tech Hype Cycle: AI mentioned in emerging technology hype cycle for 2018 - https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/5-trends-emerge-in-gartner-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies-2018/
Gartner 2021 Emerging Tech Hype Cycle: AI/ML more prominent in 2021 Emerging Tech Hype Cycle - https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/3-themes-surface-in-the-2021-hype-cycle-for-emerging-technologies/